4 hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 37p - 31p - 62p - 34p - 75p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 48p (41p).

We have repeatedly noted that the pound sterling simply has no reason to grow now. Indeed, the strengthening of a particular currency is due to the balance of supply and demand. Since the supply does not change much, the main factor affecting the exchange rate is demand. And in the case of the pound sterling, this demand is absent. However, in the case of the euro currency, the situation is no better. On July 11, 15 and 19, the euro / dollar pair tried to overcome the level of 1.1280 three times, which is not too far from the pair's lows, which does not make it strong, and all three times were unsuccessfully. The euro rejoiced very briefly as that the Fed is preparing to soften monetary policy. After all, the forex market either remembered or drew attention to information relating to the ECB, which in the same way could lower the key rate in the coming months. The only difference is that the Fed will take this step in July, and the ECB, most likely, in September. However, surprises are possible here. The fact remains that nothing has changed in the confrontation of monetary policy. Moreover, in the European Union, they can reanimate the QE economic stimulus program and the TLTRO banking sector support program, which again will put the euro in a more disadvantageous position. And what is the result? As a result, even a reduction in the Fed's key rate is unlikely to support the euro and generate demand for this currency. On Friday, there were no important macroeconomic publications in the US and the EU, and next week the attention of traders will be focused on the ECB meeting. From a technical point of view, the pair is ready to resume the downward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair completed the next round of upward correction. Thus, it is now recommended again to sell the Eurocurrency with targets at levels 1.1170 and 1.1157, since the pair has broken the critical line.

We recommend buying the euro / dollar not earlier than fixing the price above the Kijun-sen line with the first target of 1.1306; but with minimal lots, since the bulls remain extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture, we should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.