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Against the background of a completely empty macroeconomic calendar, the dollar has begun to gradually strengthen again. Although its growth is purely symbolic and almost imperceptible, it seems that investors do not care at all about the speedy easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Of course, they are not indifferent and there is no reason for joy. But apparently, even the steps that are expected from the Federal Reserve System are not enough to seriously change the mood of investors. After all, the European Central Bank still pursues a much softer policy.

Exchange Rates 16.07.2019 analysis

Today will begin with the publication of data on the UK labor market, and these data may support the pound. At first glance, nothing interesting should happen since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. However, the growth rate of the average wage, excluding bonuses, that is being processed, can accelerate from 3.4% to 3.5%. Thus, wage growth is encouraging that inflation and retail sales will also grow. After all, the unemployment rate remains unchanged. Moreover, the number of applications for unemployment benefits may drop from 23.2 thousand to 18.9 thousand.

Exchange Rates 16.07.2019 analysis

However, the pound will have little time to rejoice as very important macroeconomic data will be published for the United States already in the late afternoon. The most anticipated news is retail sales data and the growth rate of which should accelerate from 2.9% to 3.0%. Although the latest inflation data showed a slowdown, the fact that the indirect data indicate that this may be temporary. If retail sales are also growing, which is already very positive in itself, then there is no doubt that inflation will soon accelerate again. So investors will have a good reason to buy the dollar. However, the growth rate of the data on industrial production, which can slow down from 2.0% to 1.7%, will limit the growth of the dollar. Therefore, its strengthening will be moderate.

Exchange Rates 16.07.2019 analysis

The euro/dollar currency pair after the formation of the corrective move went into a stage of accumulation in the form of a lateral movement of 1.1245 / 1.1280. It is likely to assume the preservation of the current fluctuations, working within a given framework, where traders analyze the fixing points of the price.

Exchange Rates 16.07.2019 analysis

The pound/dollar currency pair has an amplitude fluctuation of 1.2500/1.2570 after the formation of a corrective move. It is likely to assume that movement within a given framework will continue, where traders are tracking existing boundaries for fixing points.

Exchange Rates 16.07.2019 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Mark Bom,
Analytical expert
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