The euro worked out the entire range of the previously noted consolidation of 1.0985-1.1026 onFriday. Today, in the Asian session, the price expects the arrival of new impulses for further movement. On the daily chart, the situation is rising - the price is above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator formed a weak convergence. Growth prospect - the area of convergence of the Fibonacci level of 123.6% with the embedded line of the price channel at the price of 1.1075.
Despite the unambiguous testimony of technical indicators, this scenario is by no means unambiguous. Oil slumped 4.63% (WTI) on Friday, natural gas fell 7.60%, copper dropped 1.30%. Such a movement in the commodity sector cannot but pull the currency market, especially since the closest target for WTI crude oil is seen at 50.60 (June 5 low, which is -8.7%). According to ISM, the November manufacturing activity index for the US manufacturing sector, released today, is expected to rise from 48.3 to 49.2. All these factors can turn the euro down even from current levels, especially since the price has not yet fixed itself above the MACD line, for this you need to close the daily session above this line.
On the four-hour chart, the price is also above the MACD line, it has already consolidated here, but the exit may turn out to be false - during periods of consolidation, especially when the MACD line is horizontal, the price can wind up on it without stress. In addition, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator did not penetrate deep into the growth zone and can return back to the territory of negative numbers.
So, we are waiting for the completion of correctional growth and, with the price going below 1.0985, a further decline in the euro to target levels of 1.0925, 1.0895.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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