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06.12.2019 12:08 PM
Is the dollar the engine of EUR/USD pair while euro is the trailer car?

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The end of the current week did not bring the EUR/USD pair any particular disappointments or victories. As expected, the dollar has strengthened its position, and the euro is striving for the same leadership, but with varying success. Thus, analysts predict a moderate rise for the pair in the near future.

According to experts, sharp movements of the EUR / USD pair are not expected before the release of the report on the American labor market (NFP). It can be recalled that this report shows the real number of jobs created. According to preliminary estimates, 186 thousand jobs appeared last month in the US economy.

In this situation, the American currency feels at its best. Even possible negative NFPs will not be able to shake its confidence. The European currency is also positive, despite the instability of its position. On Thursday, December 5, the EUR / USD pair was in an upward trend, and today, there will be attempts to resume it. Also yesterday, the pair managed to step over the bar 1.1100 and move up quickly.

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Subsequently, the EUR / USD pair reached the correctional level of 1.1104, which became a significant obstacle for traders. Yesterday, the pair confused the market, since it did not show movements in a certain direction, but moved in waves - up and down. According to analysts, the consolidation of the upward trend of the EUR / USD pair should be expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1114.

Currently, the pair is close to this level. On Friday, December 6, the EUR / USD pair is trading within 1.1107–1.1109, and sometimes falling slightly. In turn, the market froze in anticipation of NFP data, and this explains the pair playing within the same range.

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At the moment, the EUR / USD pair is showing a downward mood, which cannot do anything but worry the market. It also went to a peak, dropping the bar sharply to 1.1096. Thus, experts are perplexed: will the EUR / USD pair finally lose their positions? Analysts are still expecting on a favorable outcome.

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The dollar tried to strengthen its position and "take out" the EUR / USD pair to new heights while the European currency was growing amid market expectations regarding the conclusion of the first phase of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. Most often, the "American" succeeded. At the same time, many experts are optimistic regarding the immediate prospects for the dollar. Danske Bank's currency strategists are confident that the key event in 2020 will be the strengthening of USD. Moreover, experts do not observe negative signs that can radically change the current Fed policy or affect the preferences of investors choosing the dollar.

According to experts, the dollar will remain the leader in the pair EUR / USD in the short and medium term, and the euro - the slave. This alignment is not excluded even in the case of the growth of the "European" against the backdrop of positive news, such as the ECB's refusal to soften monetary policy and the strengthening of the pound as a result of the "soft" Brexit. Nevertheless, upcoming political events will somehow affect the EUR / USD pair, however, the dollar will be able to withstand the pressure of possible adverse factors, and it is much more difficult for the European currency to do this, experts believe.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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