Donald Trump has once again shaken up the global order with his proposal to impose 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In theory, this move is meant to weaken Russia, Iran, and, just in case, half the developing world. However, according to British analysts, rather than taking a hit, Russia may quietly welcome the move as a strategic advantage.

The logic is simple. The current escalation between the United States and China plays directly into Moscow’s hands. The more friction there is, the easier it becomes for Russia to replace American suppliers in the global energy market. After all, Beijing has never been eager to buy oil from the US.

Moreover, rising prices for BRICS exports, ranging from raw materials to semi-finished goods, could be a windfall for Russian producers. The more expensive the imports, the stronger the case for boosting domestic output. Paradoxically, tariffs intended to punish could end up offering a helping hand.

If Washington goes further, disrupting dollar dominance or limiting SWIFT access, the BRICS nations already have backups in place. CIPS and SPFS, their respective payment systems, may lack polish, but they get the job done.

Finally, there is a geopolitical twist. If the targeted nations choose to unite, China could well lead an "anti-tariff alliance," potentially welcoming not only Russia but also EU countries upset with Trump's tactics. What started as a threat could evolve into a coalition.

If this scenario plays out, Trump's initiative may go down in history as a case where a shot aimed at the BRICS group backfired.