The week proved to be inconclusive, and the single European currency completed it approximately in the same place where it started. However, it is worth noting that until Thursday the dollar became cheaper, but the results of the ECB board meeting put everything in its place. As expected, there have been no changes in the parameters of the monetary policy. The regulator once again announced the growing risks and the possibility of extending the quantitative easing program after September of this year. Naturally, in this situation, even stutter is not worth raising the refinancing rate. The only thing that did not allow the dollar to begin to rapidly rise in price, so this is what exactly such a result everyone was waiting for. In principle, the ECB's current behavior has long been accustomed to.

However, we should not forget about macroeconomic statistics, which reflects the real state of affairs in the economy. In particular, the reason for the growth of the single European currency at the beginning of the week was data on retail sales in Europe, whose growth rates accelerated from 2.1% to 2.3%. Also, the final GDP data for the fourth quarter showed that the economic growth rate remained at the same level. But this is compared with the third quarter, and if we are talking about an annual comparison, then in 2017, Europe's GDP grew by 2.7%, while in 2016, growth was 2.0%. So the face is accelerating the pace of economic growth.

If we talk about US statistics, then the week started not so positively, as production orders dropped by 1.4%. Closer to Friday came a series of indirect data on the labor market, which preceded the Friday report of the US Department of Labor and did not allow any forward-reaching conclusions. On the one hand, employment increased by 235 thousand with a forecast of 195 thousand. But it all turned out to be a slowdown in the rate of employment growth, as the previous data was revised upwards from 234 thousand to 244 thousand. The number of initial applications for benefits unemployment increased from 210 thousand to 231 thousand, but the number of repeat ones, on the contrary, decreased from 1,934 thousand to 1,870 thousand. The same report of the Ministry of Labor surprised the market somewhat. Thus, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, and the growth rate of the average hourly wages slowed from 2.8% to 2.6%. But all this was compensated by the creation of 313,000 new jobs, an increase in the average length of the working week from 34.3 hours to 34.5 hours, and an increase in the proportion of the workforce in the total population from 62.7% to 63.0%. But in the remainder of the remainder, we still see a decline in aggregate income, as the growth rate of the average hourly wage slowed by 7.1%, while the working week's duration increased by only 0.6%. Another negative factor was the fact that commodity stocks in wholesale warehouses increased by 0.8%.

This week there will be a lot of interesting data both in Europe and in the USA. The very European statistics will most likely have a negative impact on the single European currency. Thus, the growth rates of industrial production should slow from 5.2% to 4.7%, and inflation from 1.3% to 1.2%. So the dreams of the completion of the program of quantitative easing can be put off in a long box. As for the United States, then inflation can accelerate from 2.1% to 2.2%, and the growth rate of retail sales from 3.6% to 3.8%. However, not everything is so cloudless, as commercial reserves should increase by 0.5%. Also, the number of construction permits issued should be reduced by 12.3%, although this will be offset by a 6% increase in the number of construction projects started.

The euro / dollar pair will continue to decline slightly and by the end of the week will drop to 1.2200.