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22.02.2018 09:34 AM
Pressure on the euro is gradually declining

The US dollar continued its steady growth against the euro, pound and other world currencies after the publication of yesterday's Federal Reserve reports from the January meeting.

The minutes indicated that most managers expect improvements in prospects, which increases the likelihood of a further gradual increase in rates. The Fed also agreed that a gradual upward trajectory of interest rates would be appropriate.

Given that the latest data indicate a stronger outlook for the US economy than expected at the end of last year, there is little doubt that the committee will start talking seriously about the next rate hike in the spring.

The minutes also say that the experts of the Federal Reserve raised their forecast for GDP due to tax cuts, high stock prices and the growth of the world economy. They also expect a decline in the unemployment rate in the next few years.

As for inflation, which is the most important issue at the moment, most managers believe that inflation will grow in 2018 and stabilize around 2% in the medium term. The growth will occur against the backdrop of increasing upward pressure on wages, as well as against the US dollar at the end of last year. Judging by the data that came out last week, all of this is coming.

As for the experts of the FRS, they forecast a basic inflation of around 2% in 2019, and overall inflation will be about 2% by 2020.

The protocols also talked about the prospects for economic growth in the coming quarters, which were significantly improved, thanks to the new tax policy and the growth of the world economy.

The sales in the secondary housing market in the US in January fell significantly, but the data was ignored by traders. According to the report of the National Association of Realtors, sales in the secondary housing market in January 2018 fell by 3.2% compared to the previous month and amounted to 5.38 million homes per year. The economists had expected that sales would grow by 0.7%, to 5.61 million homes. In comparison with the same period of the previous year, sales decreased by 4.8%.

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As for the technical prospects of the EUR / USD currency pair, it is necessary to pay attention to the formation of an upward correction towards the end of the week, which may start from support levels of 1.2260 and 1.2240 in the short term. However, there is no need to exclude the possibility of updating sellers of a larger area of 1.2210.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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