For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed ultra-high volatility of 222 points, as a result of drawing out pulsed candles on the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we continue to observe the feast of speculators, where the quote in a matter of hours, has managed to accelerate from the accumulation of 1.3220 in the direction of the psychological level of 1.3000, after which it instantly forms a rollback on overheating. Naturally, this kind of turbulence was provoked against the information and news background, and now in order. We begin with a key event, the European Union agreed to postpone Brexit, and this is a "victory". Sarcasm, yes, this is it, the leaders of 27 EU countries agreed on a delay and a new release date on May 22, but there is a nuance. The British parliament must approve the deal, otherwise on April 12, Brexit will happen without a deal. Now, we understand why there was such a drain of the English currency, since the risk of a hard Brexit has grown up at times. At the same time, yesterday, there was a meeting of the Bank of England, where, naturally, the rate was left at the same level, 0.75%. What is more interesting is the statement made by the head of the regulator Mark Carney: "The forecast for the economy will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of leaving the EU. " Mark, in his speech, duplicated fears if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, since a sharp drop in pound sterling can create inflationary pressure in addition to a wide economic shock. Let me remind you that yesterday, the UK retail sales data also went out, where they waited for a decline from 4.2% to 3.3%. As a result, it received 4.0%, but since there was a strong negative information background, this positive news went nowhere.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we are waiting for statistics from the United States regarding sales in the secondary market, where growth is expected from 4.94M to 5.10M.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is rather calm compared to last week. At the same time, traders are waiting for another vote in the British Parliament regarding an agreement that will decide the fate of the postponement.
Tuesday
United States 15:30 MSK - Number of building permits issued (Feb): Prev. 1,345M ---> Forecast 1,320M
United States 15:30 MSK - The volume of construction of new homes (Feb): Prev. 1.230M ---> Forecast of 1.235M
Thursday
United States 15:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 2.6% ---> Forecast 2.6%
United States 17:00 MSK - The index of pending sales in the real estate market (m / m) (Feb): Prev. 4.6% ---> Forecast 0.4%
Friday
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 1.3%
United States 17:00 MSK - Sales of new housing (Feb): Prev. 607K ---> 617K forecast
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a great pullback / correction after a recent rally, where the quote reached the value of 1.3150, after which the attenuation process started in the form of double-digit doji-type candles. It is likely to assume that the descending interest will continue in the medium term, but there are many reasons for this.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Traders considered buying positions at the moment of price approaching the psychological level of 1.3000. Now, I think, everyone has already fixed it. If we consider long positions, it is in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3180.
- Traders consider selling positions at a price lower than 1.3115.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is interest in the general market background in the short, intraday and medium term.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 22 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 56 points. It is likely to assume that volatility will remain high due to ambiguity in the information background.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
