From the point of view of complex analysis, you can see high speculative interest, during which the quote managed to reach a key coordinate, and now let's talk about the details.

The past trading day had an upward mood once again, where the quote rebounded from the level of 1.1080 and headed towards the variable coordinate 1.1240, where shadows of candles locally managed to break through the price value, but there was no consolidation of the price relative to the four-hour period.

Walking along the fine line, this is what is visible in the current situation, do not forget that the rapid upward course lasts almost three weeks, of which there is an inertial movement for one and a half weeks, where there were no corrections and proper pullbacks.

Overheating of long positions – this is what we may face in the near future, unless, of course, there is a proper scale correction. Do not forget that the inertia movement can not be constant, and the longer it takes place in the market, the more colorful its fracture occurs.

Regarding the tactics of conducting transactions, there can be no other option here than local operations, especially with the current inertia, this type of transaction can bring the largest return to the trade deposit. As for the fundamental changes, I would like to repeat the words from the previous review, do not make early conclusions, the global trend is not broken.

In terms of volatility, one can single out a sequential acceleration relative to past days 53 ---> 80 ----> 91 points, where the dynamics are already exceeding the average daily indicator.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the slight similarity of the inertial movement with the period earlier than 02.21.20-09.03.20. In this case, the rate of change is lower.

The news background of the past day had an index of business activity in the European services sector, where they recorded growth from 12.0 points to 30.5 points. In addition, unemployment indicators in the EU came out, the level of which increased from 7.1% to 7.3%, but they predicted an increase to 8.1%.

The reaction to the statistics was practically absent in the market.

In the afternoon, they published an ADP report in the United States, where employment declined by 2,760,000, which is a high value, but it is worth considering that a decline of 9,600,000 was predicted. Therefore, there is a characteristic improvement. In turn, the previous employment data in the ADP report was revised for the better 20,236,000 ---> 19,557,000.

"The aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis continues to put pressure on businesses of all sizes. While the labor market is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, job losses probably peaked in April, as many states have now begun a phased resumption of business,"says Ahu Yildirmaz, co-director of ADP Research Institute.

At the same time, we had data on the volume of factory orders, which declined by 13%, although we predicted a decline by a more impressive scale of 16%. In addition, the index of business activity in the service sector grew from 26.7 to 37.5 points, which is a good indicator.

The market reaction to the statistics on the United States, which are not bad in a certain point of view, did not play a proper role, the US dollar continued to lose its position and here it is worth highlighting a number of factors. The US economy is still under attack, and the recovery is still very far away. At the same time, the street riots in the US, although they have begun to localize, still exist and have a proper impact on investors.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in Europe, the decline rate of which can accelerate from -9.2% to -24.0%, which will be an anti-record. The main event on Thursday will be a meeting of the European Central Bank [ECB], where you should not expect a change in the interest rate, which is so at a zero level, but there is a rumor that an extension of the quantitative easing program may be announced during the current session. If the rumors are confirmed and the program is expanded, then the euro will be under pressure, which will be expressed in a change in the current inertia.

ECB meeting - 11:45 Universal time

Press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde - 12:30 Universal time

Further development

By analyzing the current trading chart, you can see a pullback, where the quote has already won back most of yesterday's move. Overheating of long positions is still felt in the market, where, to normalize the processes, the quote should decline to the level of 1.1150. Regarding the current inertial course, there is an assumption that we have the completion of the model, which will lead to a significant correction in the market.

In terms of the emotional mood of the market, it is worth highlighting a high coefficient of speculative positions, which does not change when the inertial model is completed.

It can be assumed that the analysis of the past day is being carried out, that is, there is a process of returning the price to the level of 1.1180. At this stage, it is very important to consolidate below this level [1.1180], since otherwise you should not exclude variable fluctuation in the range of 1.1180/1.1250. The main goal is to develop the correction. Here, the first point after the price consolidates below 1.1180 is in the region of 1.1150, where it will already be possible to consider a further decline to 1.1100 - 1.1080.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- We consider selling positions in the direction of 1.1180. After that, we open the way below 1.1170 to 1.1150-1.1100-1.1080.

- We consider buying positions above 1.1260, in the direction of 1.1300 - 1.1350.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments on hourly and daily periods signal purchases due to inertial upward movement. It is worth considering that when crossing the level of 1.1180 from top to bottom, we will see the first changes in the indicators on hourly periods.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation calculated for Month / Quarter / Year.

(June 4 was built taking into account the publication time of the article)

The current time volatility is 40 points, which is half the average daily rate. It can be assumed that the dynamics will accelerate and that the external background, the ECB meeting and speculative activity will contribute to this.

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.1000 ***; 1.1080 **; 1.1180; 1.1300; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1.0000 ***.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level