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05.05.202109:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD: Markets are excited because Janet Yellen said passing Biden's new spending plan may lead to an earlier-than-scheduled rate hike.

Discussions on Joe Biden's proposed tax reform are ongoing. One of the key issues tackled is the transfer of inheritance because apparently, current legislation allows investors to transfer assets with little or no tax, thereby increasing the value of the property at the time of inheritance.

Exchange Rates 05.05.2021 analysis

To put it simply, a $ 1 million home bought for $ 100,000 two decades earlier does not have to pay any capital gains tax at the moment. If the house is later sold for $ 1.5 million, only $ 500,000 will be taxed. This rule applies to other assets as well.

According to the US Joint Committee on Taxation, untaxed capital gains on inherited assets run roughly hundreds of billions of dollars a year. About half of them belong to the richest 1% of the US, and accounts for about 40% of the wealth.

Therefore, ending this practice and raising the tax rate will be the biggest blow to affluent American families. As such, it will be hard to get support for it, especially from the Republicans.

On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the new spending plan to be funded by the new tax reform may result in interest rates hiking earlier than expected. "Interest rates may rise ahead of schedule to keep our economy from overheating," she said.

But some believe that Yellen is referring to market interest rates, not the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Exchange Rates 05.05.2021 analysis

Meanwhile in Europe, a wave of bankruptcies has swept the economy. Recently, more and more information has been slipping in the media that after the government curtailed aid programs, many firms have shut down. Apparently, almost half of businesses rely on these measures, so ending them quite abruptly hit the sector very negatively.

Going back to the US, trade deficit is reported to have reached a new record high this March, thanks to the much stronger economic recovery. The US Department of Commerce said the deficit widened to $ 74.4 billion, mainly due to the 6.3% jump in imports and 6.6% increase in exports. If this growth continues, the US may see a much better increase in GDP this year.

Exchange Rates 05.05.2021 analysis

Another good report is the gain in factory orders, which jumped by 1.1% this March after falling by 0.5% last February. According to calculations, this happened because orders for durable goods rose by 0.8% in March.

With regards to EUR/USD, a strong decline will occur if bearish traders manage to push the quote below the 20th figure. If that happens, the euro will drop to 1.1960 and 1.1920. But if bullish traders are able to bring the quote above 1.2035, the euro will have a chance to climb towards 1.2075 and 1.2115.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021
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