EUR/USD

The euro fell yesterday. Consolidation begins before the day of the US presidential election, the range of which can still expand using data on US GDP and the ECB meeting on Thursday. Today there are data on orders for durable goods in the US for September, the forecast is 0.5% as in August, but we believe that the data will come out worse, as the September business plans already lacked budgetary stimulus. In particular, this was reflected in the weak growth of Manufacturing PMI in September and October (53.2 and 53.3, respectively).

The price is above the balance indicator line on the daily EUR/USD chart, while the Marlin oscillator is turning in the direction of growth. The price is likely to rise to the highs of the last three days (1.1863). Getting the price to go beyond this level will allow it to reach the first target of 1.1917 or slightly higher, having touched the MACD line. Furthermore, the price is facing the symbolic target of 1.1955 (the upper border of the price channel), overcoming it can change the course of the current history for a long time.

The price has settled below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, but the price is still supported by the balance line (red indicator), which may cause it to return to the area above the MACD line with consolidation above the 1.1824 level, again within the framework of forming a consolidation.

A fall in the price to 1.1754 and even going under it with the intention of reaching 1.1650 is not excluded, but this is an emergency scenario in the current short-term situation.